Forecast for Latin America in 2023

After more than two years of pandemic, and amid lockdowns and very strict travel restrictions, it’s a good time to ask: What is the projection of Latin America’s aviation market for 2023 and what are airlines doing to recover the lost time? We will provide a general overview of what the future might look like for the region and how Brookfield Aviation International is assisting airlines through the support of our Latin American branch, to create a favourable future for the industry in the region.

Let’s first begin with the data. According to the Latin American & Caribbean Air Transport Association, until the beginning of the pandemic the region had a steady monthly growth rate of 5%. But when the restrictions took full force, by April, May, June and July 2020, the number of passengers dropped massively by a staggering 90%. Given this scenario, and taking into account many Latin American economies had issues before the beginning of the pandemic, the volume of passengers is not expected to recover until 2025. A long road lies ahead of a complete recuperation.

Photo taken in august 2020, El Dorado Airport.

However, not all are grim projections. Cargo and domestic travel are the main reasons for the recovery of the aviation market in the region. As well, the softened travel restrictions have contributed to the recovery of passenger flows within the region and to North America. IATA projects that the passenger numbers in 2023 will surpass those from 2019: Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%) and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%), respectively. In addition, and thanks to the lifting of border restrictions, there is a progressive increase in tourism, after severe lockdowns and measures. Countries like Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Dominican Republic now have no restrictions for travellers from the whole continent, making them attractive destinations.

Mexico City Airport, March 2021. Source: El País

What is the role that Brookfield Aviation International is playing in this promising outlook? We offer a wide array of services that can be tailored to airlines, depending on their current or future needs. For instance, one of our most recent successful cases, was to keep operative some routes all over the Americas when local personnel could not cover them, due to the shortage of pilots. Thanks to our offices in Colombia and our experienced staff, we were able to provide pilots to this company without interrupting their operations. Our premium service also provided support in pilots’ recruitment, logistics, management, and crew positioning, in accordance with local regulations. In addition, we have also assisted airlines to lease aircraft on Wet or Dry lease, depending on their needs and budget, plus services like contract solutions, consulting, engineering and administrative resources and B-learning courses designed according to airlines’ standards.

Our contribution is not only limited to support for airlines. Through our Pilot Development Programs in Latin America, we are committed to help junior cadets or low hours first officers to build their careers, by giving them experience and knowledge, creating thus a valuable human resource for our clients. This experience will allow them to obtain good opportunities in the aviation industry and, hopefully, they will become successful captains. This has been our main goal with every single cadet who has trusted his training to us.

As it could be seen, these last two years were especially harsh for the aviation industry in Latin America with most of its aircraft grounded, pilots sacked and airlines shutting down. But given the promising forecasts for the next year onwards, we can say the industry will be back on its feet or even better than pre-Covid times, as the figures mentioned at the beginning of this article state. We, as Brookfield Aviation International, cannot miss the opportunities this new scenario offers.