Here’s Why Flying is Safer Than You Think

Many people can relate to the anxiety that comes with flying; in fact, research from Frontiers in Psychology reveals that up to 40% of individuals experience aviophobia, the fear of flying. With increasing reports of extreme turbulence, door plug blowouts, and near collisions on runways, aviophobia is growing among both first-time passengers and seasoned travellers. Research from MIT, however, reassuringly demonstrates that air travel is becoming safer year after year, showcasing significant advancements in aviation safety.

MIT researchers reported the risk of dying from commercial air travel is 1 in 13.7 million passenger boardings globally from 2018 to 2022. According to a paper published in the Journal of Air Transport Management, the risk of fatalities is down from 1 per 7.9 million passenger boardings in 2008-2017.

Arnold Barnett, co-author and expert in air travel safety and operations, said: “You might think there is some irreducible risk level we can’t get below and yet, the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.”

The MIT team also pointed out that commercial travel has become almost twice as safe each decade since the late 1960s.

According to data analysed by MIT researchers, here are the number of fatalities per passenger boarding commercial flights between 1968 and 2022:

1968-1977: 1 per 350,000

1978-1987: 1 per 750,000

1988-1997: 1 per 1.3 million

1998-2007: 1 per 2.7 million

2007-2017: 1 per 7.9 million

2018-2022: 1 per 13.7 million

The researchers also highlight specific disparities regarding destinations and have organised countries into three tiers based on aviation safety records.

The top tier for air safety includes the United States and countries in the European Union, including Montenegro, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, and New Zealand.

The second tier includes Bahrain, Bosnia, Brazil, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, India, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

The death risk per boarding for both tiers over 2018-22 was about 1 per 80 million, according to the study.

The third tier includes every country in the world. From 2018 to 2022, this tier had 36.5 times more fatalities per passenger boarding than the top tier. However, the number of air travel fatalities per boarding was still halved during the same period.

While the MIT study did not rank individual airlines for safety, an airline safety and product rating review website, AirlineRatings.com, placed Air New Zealand in the top position for safety.

Despite recent media reports causing anxiety, air travel safety continues to improve significantly. While some concerns remain, particularly regarding certain regions, strong evidence suggests flying is statistically one of the safest forms of travel!